What’s Coming in the San Antonio Real Estate Market?

by Gavin St. Louis

The Great Buyer Dam—And What Happens When It Really Breaks

What’s going on, San Antonio? If you’re renting, you probably feel like you’re on a treadmill that only speeds up—$1,775 for a 2-bedroom, over $2,000 for a 3-bedroom, and your landlord’s out here shopping for a new boat. If you’re a would-be buyer, you’re watching interest rates like a hawk, waiting for that “just right” moment.

Well, what if I told you that “just right” moment might be closer than you think?

The Buyer Dam: Held Back by High Rates

Right now, mortgage rates are chilling in the 6.5%–7.5% range. That’s enough to keep a stampede of buyers safely penned up on the sidelines, renting and waiting. But what happens if those rates suddenly drop by 1.5% or even 2%?

Average rent in San Antonio: $1,775 for a 2-bed, $2,000+ for a 3-bed
Median home price: Around $305,000
Number of buyers on the sidelines: More than confetti at a Fiesta parade

If Rates Drop by 1.5%–2%: Release the Kraken

Let’s not sugarcoat it—if mortgage rates fall to the mid-5% range, it’s going to be a frenzy:

Monthly mortgage payments could drop $350–$500+ for the average buyer. That’s not just pocket change—that’s “take your family out for brisket every weekend” money.
A whole new wave of buyers qualifies—folks who were locked out at 7% suddenly get their golden ticket.
Pent-up renters and first-timers rush in—tired of paying $2,000+ a month for rent and ready to build some equity instead of their landlord’s vacation fund.

Imagine Fiesta Texas on a Saturday, but instead of roller coasters, it’s open houses and bidding wars. If you’re not ready, you’ll be standing outside with a churro and a sad face while everyone else is inside picking paint colors.

Renters: Your Window Might Be Small

If you’re renting, here’s the real talk:
The second rates drop, you’ll be competing with a flood of other buyers—many of whom have been prepping for this exact moment. Waiting too long could mean getting priced out by rising home prices or missing out on the best homes.

What to do now:

Get your credit and finances in order (I won’t judge your Amazon splurges)
Connect with a lender who knows their stuff
Start your home search, so you’re ready to move when the green light flashes

Sellers: Time to Shine (and Clean Those Baseboards)

If you’ve been thinking about selling, this is your heads-up:
When rates drop, demand will surge. Homes that have been sitting? Suddenly, they’re hot property. Prep now, so you’re ready to hit the market when buyers come flooding in.

Rent vs. Buy in San Antonio: 2025 Breakdown

Scenario	Renting (2-bed)	Buying (Median Home)
Monthly Payment	$1,775	~$1,850*
Annual Cost	$21,300	~$22,200
Money Back at Tax Time	$0	Mortgage interest deduction, equity growth
Rent Increase Next Year?	Yes	No (fixed-rate mortgage)
Landlord’s BMW Fund	Growing	You’re the landlord now!
Control Over Home	Limited	Yours—paint, remodel, plant a tree!
Long-Term Wealth	$0	Equity builds every payment

*Assumes $305,000 home, 5.5% interest, 5% down ($15,250), taxes & insurance included. Actual payments may vary—let’s run your numbers!

Bottom Line:
San Antonio’s real estate market is holding its breath. When interest rates drop by 1.5%–2%, it won’t just be a trickle of buyers—it’ll be a full-on tidal wave. Renters will finally have a shot to escape rising payments, and sellers will see the kind of action that makes open houses look like Black Friday doorbusters.

Want to be ready when the dam breaks?
Let’s talk. I’m here to help you Lease. Sell. Win.—and maybe save you from another year of rent hikes and landlord flexes.

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